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Happy Sunday β˜€

In this week’s newsletter, you’ll read about…

πŸ”“ Daily Trading Levels

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πŸ“– FOMC Recap

Fed

Stocks finished Wednesday sharply lower after the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged and signaled cuts are coming but not occurring in March.

Is this a buying opportunity or a moment where the narrative may switch? It could be both. In my opinion, the market doesn’t like uncertainty, so I expect the next Fed meeting to involve a rate cut. If not, the market and investors may get impatient.

"The executive summary would be growth is solid to strong ...
3.7% unemployment indicates the labor market is strong ...
We've got six good months of inflation data and an expectation that there's more to come," the Fed chief said. "Let's be honest, this is a good economy."

Powell said rate cuts would come once the Fed becomes more secure that inflation will continue to decline from a level it still characterizes as "elevated," at least on a one-year basis, with the personal consumption expenditures price index, a key measure used by policymakers, at 2.6% on an annual basis as of December.

Read more here

Listen to the full FOMC meeting below or read more about what the Fed said here.

Upcoming Earning Reports

AMZN, META, and AAPL are all reporting.

Levels for $AMZN were given here.

What’s up with China’s Economy?

Despite persistent negative returns, Chinese stocks have maintained a significant presence in the portfolios of U.S. investors through international funds. Over the past few decades, U.S. markets have consistently outperformed global counterparts, including China's.

While professional investors have become wary of the negative returns in Chinese markets, many individual investors, driven by a belief in global diversification, unknowingly hold substantial exposure to Chinese stocks through international funds. Interestingly, some of Asia's wealthier investors, particularly in China, prefer U.S. markets over their own.

Investors should exercise caution due to several factors:

  1. Lack of Transparency: Chinese economic data is deemed unreliable, creating a challenge for investors to obtain an accurate picture of the current economic situation.

  2. Current Economic Woes: China is grappling with structural economic issues leading to a prolonged economic decline, high unemployment, and deflation.

  3. Slowing Growth and Potential Recession: China's economic growth is decelerating rapidly, possibly approaching recession, contrary to official statistics.

  4. Real Estate Bubble Burst: A significant real estate bubble in China has burst, resulting in a substantial decrease in property values and a cascade of nonperforming loans.

  5. Stock Market Performance: China's Hang Seng stock index has delivered negative returns for 15 years, with over $6 trillion in market value wiped out since 2021.

  6. Geopolitical Tensions: U.S.-China relations have strained due to issues like human rights abuses, intellectual property theft, and territorial disputes, potentially leading to a "great decoupling."

  7. Demographic Challenges: China's one-child policy and low immigration rates may lead to a significant decline in the working-age population, posing long-term economic challenges.

  8. Risks of Misrepresentation: The opacity of the Chinese government and potential misrepresentation of economic data raise concerns about the accuracy of information available to investors.

Considering these risks, if you invest in China, it is essential to have realistic expectations and understand things can take time. Search for companies that are industry leaders and have not changed much fundamentally within their company.

Analyst Calculating Risk-Reward

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Get the best stock ideas

Our AI tool scours the internet every day for the best stock ideas that we share with you each morning in our free, daily email.

We find stock ideas from:

  • Billion-dollar hedge funds

  • Professional analysts

  • Millionaire investors

  • and more…

We’ve already found stock ideas like:

  • Carvana ($CVNA) - +822% in 4 months

  • Myomo ($MYO) - +507% in 3 month

  • ImmunityBio ($IBRX) - +313% in 1 month

  • and a ton more…

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